By Walter Jowers

All day, just about every day, people ask me when and how things break. They want to know when their roofs will start to leak, their water heaters will stop heating, and their heat-and-air systems will quit blowing.

It's human nature to wonder about such things, but the answers are hard to come by. I know how a lot of things break, but I surely don't know when they'll break. So, when people ask me to predict the dying day of their house parts, I give 'em a smartass answer: "If I could see the future, I'd move to Vegas tomorrow and make myself some serious money."

That said, I'll go ahead and explain what I do know about how and when things break.

Nearly every perishable part of your house will last about as long as a dog. Most dogs last about 12 to 15 years, with exceptions on the short end for hard-luck, flawed and mistreated dogs. The lasts-as-long-as-a-dog rule applies to your roof, your water heater, your heat-and-air equipment, all of your appliances, and the paint on the outside of your house.

Everything quits working pretty much like a car battery. Every dead car battery you ever owned cranked up the car to take you somewhere, then went dead when it was time for you to leave. Furnaces work the same way. They warm you up one minute, leave you cold the next. This rule even applies to sour milk. Last time you drank out of that jug, the milk was fine. Next time, it's not fit for drinking. When things go, they go quick, just like poor old Dale Earnhardt—one second racing along just fine, the next second following the white light to Jesus.

Instead of fretting about when something's going to blow, just stay ready to deal with the problem when it comes along. Keep some money in the bank and some tools in the garage. Sure, your furnace ought to last for a dog's age, but when it breaks down—whether it's a day old or 30 years old—you've got to be ready to fix it or replace it. When your water heater tank blows out—and they all blow out one day—you'll have to mop up the mess and get a new water heater.

When you stop and think about it, it wouldn't help you much to know when something's going to break. Suppose I called you up and told you that your stove's going to stop cooking in two weeks. What good did I do you? You wouldn't go out and buy a new stove on my say-so. You'd wait two weeks and see if your stove really breaks. If the stove broke on the very day I said it would, you'd be in exactly the same fix you'd be in if I hadn't told you anything; you'd need a new stove right away.

Most folks like new things. They think new things are bright and shiny and work just fine. That's not true. I used to work in a music store. I have unboxed many a new guitar, amplifier and audio gadget, only to pronounce it dead on arrival and send it right back to the factory. That's why the stuff-buying public thinks new things are good—because people like me sent most of the bad stuff back before they ever got ahold of it. Culled the herd, so to speak.

Just as folks like new things, they like repaired things. Believe me when I tell you: there is nothing more likely to break than a thing that just got out of the shop. It's like people who just got out of prison. They clean up OK, and you hope they'll be fine, but give 'em just a little while, and they go right back to their errant ways. Heck, sometimes they come up with new and troubling errant ways.

I get my lawn mower cleaned and its blade sharpened every winter. When it's time to crank it up in the spring, I'm scared to death. I stand on top of it when I crank it, so if the blade flies off, it won't amputate my feet. If the thing holds together for a five-minute dry run, I go ahead and cut grass.

Don't go around thinking that there's something wrong with every old thing. Why do you think rock stars play guitars from the '50s and '60s? It's not because all the guitars from that period were finely crafted instruments. It's because all the bad-necked, warped-up, won't-stay-in-tune guitars from that era have been burned in campfires or turned into bedside tables. The only guitars left from the '50s and '60s are the excellent ones.

Regardless of age, everything breaks sooner or later, suddenly and without warning. New things break all the time, but you just don't know about it. Anything that's been worked on recently is likely to break soon. Even so, you'll never know for sure when things are going to break, and it wouldn't do you much good if you did know. Finally, there's this: in your whole life, you just won't buy that many roofs, furnaces, water heaters and appliances. You'll have more dogs than you'll have roofs. Relax and enjoy the dogs.